JG, I can give many reasons why AGO should be running atm along with the io sector. The only stock that's performed in line with IO is RIO, and FMG to a lesser extent, and ARI over the past few weeks.
Why is AGO not running?
Some observations:
(1) Which stocks are attracting the most activity?
The ones that have risen the most over the past year. The higher the share price has risen, the more lemmings that have piled in.
(2) Which stocks are attracting the least activity?
The ones that are down the most over the past year. The more its fallen, the more lemmings that have steered clear.
I ran some stats on ASX50 companies over the weekend, and the result is pretty clear (R^2 = +0.51; two tail t stastic p = 0.014 versus an expectation of 0 and 0.5 for no relationship), Investors/Traders/Gamblers/Shoe-shine boys are currently playing with stocks that are up the most on the ASX. I don't know how to post images on hotcopper, so I just put it up on Twitter (under Plenum). I should also point out that, the most active stocks now are likely to be the least active stocks this time next year, as everyone's excitement begins to wan and people slowly press the eject button.
(3) ASX shares are doing the complete opposite of AGO. AGO is showing a negative divergence between where the share price is going and where the business is going. ASX shares are going up while the business is going down (tracking -14% year on year).
Market prices over the short term are dictated by positive reinforcement,
eg. "Hey Billy, got any tips for the stockmarket?" "Sure Johnny, buy some PPT shares, I bought some last year and they've done really well for me!" "Thanks Billy"
eg. "Hey Billy, got any tips for the stockmarket?" "Sure Johnny, stay away from AGO shares, I bought some last year because a mate tipped me in and it's losing me money, I'm gonna sell it tomorrow before it loses me any more money" "Gee thanks for the warning Billy"
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?