what is icn's valuation?, page-34

The "true value" of ICN?

Well here is "imputed value" in the table below. My explanation follows:

I'm conservative, so per earlier statement if I take it that Halifax-1 has Resource of 1Tcf, ICN's 40% is 400Bcf and at $0.25/Mcf that was the $100M.

Table starts at 500Bcf, with 1Bcf equal approx 1PJ and moves up. The valuation is Market Cap - so keep in mind impact of debt/dilution/shares issued/cash will have.

The yellow color is what I think could be used to value of Contingent Resource. Being conservative, I use $0.25

The blue color is what I think could be used to value any 2P Reserves. Being Conservative, I use $1.00

As more wells are drilled there would be a combination of Resources and Reserves that would be aggregated.

The green color is a NETBACK estimation and NOT THE SELLING PRICE that is quoted which would be much higher). At $3Mcf net back the value is $6B. Of course that is over a 20 year contract period.

20 Years is a long time - but NAV using discount rate of 8% and apply 10% escalator on Netback yields $6.65B. Who knows what "discount" a buyer applies for the asset.


Now ask yourself - is Aussie dreaming?
Well no - thats why the references are there. A lot always depends on circumstance - I'm sure ESG would not have been thrilled by the price given they had about 1Tcf of 2P and bunch of other things and Santos got them for a little over $900M.

Note to self - when dreaming - dream big.