in the land of allusion, page-12

Thanks for the update, Rusty

Cryptic comments about SA from Keith Markey aside, we sure are at an interesting time in the company's evolution. Been an interesting journey.

And yes, while it's true that Uni has turned into an extremely frustrating long term play fit to test the patience of even the most faithful, as one of those poor misguided and oft-derided souls, I remain 100% confident,(and have no reason to think otherwise), that it isn't all about to come together in gratifying if not spectacular fashion.

Ramin's comments in the CC were insightful. Have a listen again from about 32 minutes in, question time, when the lady from Leerink asks about deals.

Ramin's demeanour changes from a person reading a prepared script to someone at the coal face talking off-the-cuff about what's about to transpire. He can barely contain his confidence. Some of these deals are done deals. Negotiations are complete. The paperwork is with the lawyers. At client's request, Unilife is commencing implementation of these deals. IMO these are materially significant insights. It's only a question of when, not if, these deals hit the bottom line.

The IP update was also impressive. This isn't just about Uni's core safety syringe IP extending out to 2030 - it's about a unique, sophisticated, continually evolving IP platform based on devices being individually customised to meet customer-specific requirements.

Not only will the clients be locked into the approval process as a primary container/drug device combination, but many of those devices will be also individually customised to their specific requirements for the life of the drug and the patent. To my way of thinking that is a powerful and enviable position to be in.

Do any of the me-too producers enjoy such a powerful competitive advantage?

Begs the question, how much is that worth? Given that the current market appears to be pricing Uni at less than the cash utilised to get this far, are we then to assume the IP is next to worthless? Don't think so. With 40% gross operating margins, doubt any potential suitor would think so either.

And as Uni continues to evolve even more differentiated devices customised to meet specfic client requirements, the IP platfrom will extend way beyond 2030 giving 20+ years protection - the "out years", as Ramin described them....

There will be no looming patent cliff for Unilife.

Which brings us back to deals. Has anyone given any thought to who the generic company announced in December might be? Who is the largest generic player in the market? Given that this particular deal has yet to be extended to its full geographic and hence financial reach, and given that more revenue/cash producing deals are coming in the next few months/calendar year, and given that the funding is sorted, or in the process of being sorted....where does that leave us?

Are JP Morgan and Frontier building substantial positions based on an expectation of Uni falling over? Don't think so.

Are our existing clients and those at the pointy end of the negotiating table signing on the dotted line for secure long term supply of our products doing so in expectation of the company falling over? Don't think so.

Are the banks/instos putting together the long term debt facility based on secure future revenues doing so in expectation of the company falling over? Don't think so.

Interesting times indeed.

Is it just me, or can anyone else feel the pendulum of confirmation bias gaining momentum from the negative to the positive! LOL!