no brainer, page-11

On the 6th of Aug '12 CFC bought Forex's 12.81% (at that time) stake for AUD1.325 per share.

By my calcs CFC's other 10.4m shares (236,906 shares I can't account for) cost them an average of AUD1.22, so they'd be taking a fair haircut on their holding if they were selling out sub $1.

If they saw 'blind' value at $1.70, they must have really lost confidence to be selling at these levels!

I think the use of the bid for manipulation to benefit a short position is starting to build creditability for mine. I think the operation looks more and more like a ploy when you consider the board's response around a 'free option' and the likelihood of the bidder being fully aware of the 'change of control' financing poison pill. As the board suggested the bidder gave itself a free pass to pull the bid, I reckon it was awaiting to play that card when it had sufficiently damaged the share price to levels satisfactory to the short holders.

The several extensions to teh bid could have been used to weigh on the SP as the short created more and more value for the holders, plus you get the simultaneous benefit of being able to buy in at these devastated levels. It's a pretty clever, though horribly dishonourable play. You have to take your hat off to whoever may have been running a strategy like this.

This is all pure supposition, if anyone has any experience in these sorts of mid-tier raids I’d be fascinated to hear about it.

In very rough terms about 47m shares have been sold since the bidder pulled out 01/02/2013, with no change in substantial holdings, so I presume it's mainly retail trading.

Once CF return all of the shareholder’s (who accepted the bid) shares, CFC's holding will drop back to its 28/12/2013 Form 604 level of 66.8m shares (13.72%).