wjtennis, for a "large" SH, you sure don't know much about the business you've invested in. Are you talking 7 figures or five fingers?
Irrespective, you have a duty of care posting here, it's not a play ground for self aggradation (increase in elevation due to the deposition of BS), there are a great many stressed out punters here with probably way too much of their future tied up in Lynas and there are certainly enough real negative facts around (RE industry) without you manufacturing a load of manure re Molymess.
While I haven't expressed it directly here Molymess's potential demise could be a huge boost to Lynas (provided it settles into reliable production post election) by reducing competition in the Japanese polishing market and opening the door in the US. Likely Mt Pass will keep producing in some format but the likely disruption will unsettle clients and create opportunity.
"22,000K tonnes of RR this year. I said they have the potential to do so. It will probably be closer to 19,000 k tonnes."
Rubbish and yet more rubbish. Q4 looks like being well under 10ktpa, Molymess has clearly stated they won't get to 19ktpa until mid year so at very best they could get to 14ktpa but that is simply not going to happen. At 14ktpa they would produce 11.5kt Ce/La which would create an operating loss circa $200M, simply NOT going to happen.
"to say that Molycorp is able to refine oxides to a purer state than Lynas's chlorides"
BS, where's the Molymess data? Produce it, luv to see it. As Jan points out the LAMP will be producing a mix of carbonate & oxide, much to customer spec, not chlorides. Are you at all aware that Molymess has been producing from refurbished old plant from the 50's and only started transitioning last Q? Your suggest that HYBRID is producing higher purity RE to the Rhodia/Chinese designed LAMP that Jack Lifton, China's pre eminent RE scientist and other RE experts all described as state of the art? Since you choose to maintain this crap, produce some data to substantiate your wild, stupid claim.
Lynas have stated that 960tpa SEG/HRE will toll processed to final separation. Period. We have no further detail beyond my original speculation that it could go to La Rochelle. I still believe that this is highly likely as Rhodia Phosphors is an obvious customer for the Eu, Tb & Y, wait and see. What are you suggesting? Lynas are going to put $150M pa SEG/HRE into the road base stream????
Just for clarity, for anyone concerned by this diatribe, Molymess realised $19kg last Q v LAMP basket of $37kg and JPM estimates of a realised price of $28kg. Molymess not only has inferior grades but also a considerably inferior suite. Molymess are only part way thru transitioning from their old plant to new, it's not complete because they ran out of money, they are suing a contractor for $150M for faulty construction (no other detail), their last Ann. contained a reference to "bottlenecks" in the process, their CoP hinges on the efficiency of their Chlor Alkali not yet completed, they are subject to an ongoing SEC investigation for false statements (no other detail, Moly hid the fact for a Q), they have $1.8B of debt on their books prior the last CR and particularly given the very poor economics of the MT Pass suite must be considered marginal at best as a going concern - hence I call them Molymess.
Lol, went looking for a Jack Lifton article that compares Molymess/Lynas far better than I can but stumbled on this new piece:
"There is no first to market advantage for Molycorp. The L(ynas)A(dvanced)M(ate... in Malaysia is now running and will begin to deliver commercial (to SPECIFICATION) materials to AAA customers early in the next quarter. It looks like it will then ramp up to full production (11000 to 22000 MTA) by the end of the year. The mechanically beneficiated ore for more than a year's production is already prepared at Mt Weld and is being shipped to the LAMP as needed. Note that the LAMP process chemistry was designed by Rhodia and is being brought up to speed with EXPERIENCED Chinese supervisors training Malay workers to take their places. Also the marketing has been done in the form of long term supply contracts (10 years).
Molycorp's problem is credibility: Will it be able to supply, on time, to specification? Note that both Molycorp and LYnas have to prove their ability to deliver TO SPECIFICATION, ON-TIME, THE QUANTITIES AGREED, and AT THE NEGOTIATED PRICE. Both are NEW suppliers and as such get a SMALL percentage (10-20) of the demand until the end-user is satisfied that they are RELIABLE. The market today does not need both of them, and the market will decide which one survives.
My guess, and it is, in the end, just that, is that Lynas will win the race due to its much lower operating costs and the experience of its operating team.Lynas' also seesm to have done an excellent marketing job IN ITS OPERATING REGION, Southest Asia.
I think that America's domestic self-sufficiency in all of the critical rare earths is in the hands of Rare Element Resources and Ucore. Both may well be successful, because they are the right size and have the right mix of products. Follow the details coming out of those companies carefully and pay strict attention to the fact that the critical rare earths are much, much, more important than the light rare earths in a balance sheet. The less a supplier has to depend on lanthanum and cerium for revenue the more likely that supplier will be a strong contender and/or the ultimate survivor and a regular supplier.
(20min delay)