RXM is getting around the bottom now I
think. I think what has scared people off is the amount of cash they
are going to need to fund the project. I also believe after talking
with infrastructure people and analysts that the funds they require
will far exceed their present Capex. I was ridiculed by people with
my last post where I pointed out some costs that I didnt see
attributed to their capex. The washing and treatment of the
concentrates at the port is going to be very expensive. The photograph
of what RXM put out in their presentation is around $150m just by
iteself without the cost of the pipe to get the concentrates there. I
am not down ramping RXM I am just being a realist. To give you an
idea I spoke to An infrastructure guy from Minmetals who pump their
concentrates from the Century Zinc mine in Queensland. They said this
is one of their biggest capex and operating costs and have big
problems with the dust in the town of Karumba. All I can say is do
your number with a capex of $2b for Hillside. This is closer to the
real costs. Take a look at OZL $1.9b for 8 million tonne a year plant,
ow can Hillside do 15 million tonne a year plant for $800m. Thats
double the size of the OZL plant for half the cost of OZL plant, and
OZL doesnt have all the infrastructure and logistical problems
associated with Hillside. Impossible.If Im wrong anywhere , happy to
eat humble pie, but dont think I will be. Cant see it ever getting off
the ground t be honest. The cost of funding will kill the project.
I think that at around $5.00lb for copper might work...Do your own
homework, this is just my opinion based on realism. Its definitely a
tough one. I think that JPM are spot on even a little optimistic, so
don't knock them.
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