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Luckycountry

1) Nobody expect IO price to stay above $150/t. ARH really need IO price above $150/t to have a tiny chance of get JV partner. Look at ARH's latest feasibility study (updated), they used $200+/t as bench price. Do you see anyone predicting $200-300/t as in ARH's updated feasibility study?

2) All analysts say massive increase in supply (mainly BHP, RIO, FMG, Vale). All these suppliers have extremely low cost base (with exception of maybe FMG who is trying to cut cost). What does this mean?

Even at low IO price (eg $70/t), BHP, RIO and Vale will be profitable enough to continue expanding and increase supply. At low IO price, these 3 will increase market share and PREVENT new player coming into the market. That's exactly what the big 3 want (control the market).

ARH will be last in line (compare to ROY, CAP & FMS) because of CP's special royalty fees, high cost & need to share infrastructure with CITIC.