gilbert-1 best bets gopo/gop, page-12

B2,

What happened to BAS is irrelevant as far as GOP's wildcat chances go with Gilbert-1.

Consider wildcat well punting. much the same as punting on a horse to win. You either lose or you win. However, with stocks you don't necessarily lose the lot. Sometimes only 50%, sometimes less, and sometimes more. Speculating is speculating. If you handicap a horse at 8 to 1 and it's paying 20 to 1, then that's good odds and value betting.

If you handicap a wildcat at 10 to 1 and it's likely to pay more than that on a strike, then that's good value and worth punting on. The market "excitement momentum" created by a positive announcement will obviously dictate the SP run and when to take profits.

Given many a different opinion on any given wildcat's potential, whether using P10 to P90, or $A10 to $A30 oil, fully diluted shares or not, and many other relevant factors, the actual strike (should it happen) will not be efficiently valued until much later on. However, punters should have been long gone by then. The "market momentum" spike in the SP should have passed its peak.

This is short-term speculative trading, and the longer-term fundamental analysis is not really applicable. The approach allows JV peer relative comparison and an assessment of good/bad value wildcat betting opportunities.


Regards,
Mensa.