Ann: Atlas Half Yearly Report and Accounts , page-21

AGO's operating surplus is 4.5-5c per share per month at current IO prices.

January and February would have been boom months even allowing for some recent Rusty rain and disruption.

So the cash surplus would have grown from $170m at 31/12 to over $200m depending on how much of cash surplus is being reinvested in future growth.

The beauty of AGO's cash surplus is that operates as a buffer so downside risk limited for AGO if IO price drops, e.g. compared to FMG big debt load which risks solvency if operating cash flows fall.

The other interesting stat from AGO's H1 accounts is that AGO's net assets as at 31/12 *after* the big writedowns stood at $1.6b. So net asset backing post writedowns is $1.73 per share. AGO with its safety net of cash surplus trading at only 80% of NTA. Compare FMG with net assets of $3.7b in their latest accounts or only $1.18 per share. FMG with all its "risky" debt trading 400% of its NTA. Mr Market in IO stocks seems to be betting on high or even higher IO prices and relatively punishing AGO for not gearing up with more debt to expand even faster! However, AGO's slow and steady approach is paying off now in cash flow and will pay off handsomely if IO prices sustained.

As for UBS forecasts, what were the forecasts in September last year and how accurate were they?