let the games begin, page-97

Fair enough however at the current levels there are 190m shares being held short yes?

And there are holding fees to do so right?

They pay interest to the lender for the privilege of borrowing they also pay dividends to the lender.

Both the lender and borrower are liable for fees to ASIC for the shorting arrangement.

In the case of CFD's the underlying shares are purchased and held in order for the CFD to operate.

That is why CFD's need to be closed out on market right?

Because the underlying CFD's shares need to be sold or bought in order for the position to be cancelled.

If I hold long and own the shares I do not incur fees just opportunity cost and the loss or gain associated with my position becomes valid when I sell.

SO in the case of the 190M shares held short there is interest accruing and fees payable for every day they are outstanding.

Maybe in the case of Lynas the daily pattern of up in the morning and down in the afternoon is actually the underlying CFD shares being bought and sold for the daily positions for CFD traders?

Maybe thats the reason we get a two bar reversal on big up days also, the CFD guys load up long and the underlying shares are purchased on market for the rise then when the market does not pile in behind them they need to get out of the position the next day so the underlying shares are sold.

Hmmmn an interesting thought yeah?

If that trading activity on CFD's is the reason for volatility because the leveraged positions allow amplified trading volumes then what does that really mean for the underlying stock and its owners?

Maybe there are more longs than you think that don't trade and are taking a long term view.

Maybe the high level of CFD's are the real reason for volatility however its a zero sum game, for every winner a loser.

What will we need to see chart wise to break out of the short termism that may be the real plague on this stock?

Earnings will definitely make people want to hold so end of year when we are at full production and the company has more money to splash around then maybe the shares will transfer to stronger holders whom have a long term view rather than the CFD players whom will then find it harder to access a liquid pool of stock aka floating supply.

The shorts should be reeled in to soak up floating supply then as shares are harder to get at a lower price due to becoming more valued by the market we should see high spread low volume upbars on the chart, we are on our way then.

SO when we start to see low volume upbars then we will start to see a changing of the guard and much higher prices with less volatility.

Just a theory, any ideas TA guru's?