technicals & fundamentals, page-13

tcf, indeed these are worrying times for many shareholders, especially those investing in the PM sector. Me follow the XGD from 5000 to 6500 back to 4250 yet still trying to catch falling knives like the d... a.. that I am.
Now IF the broader market does collapse, then one of 3 things could happen IMO.

1. The divergence between the broad market and bullion/PM stocks will reverse. i.e. bullion & PM stocks go north while the S&P500 etc. go south. However this would only be the case if the S&P500 has a more gradual shift/decline over many months IMO.

2. The broad market crashes suddenly and everything (with the exception of treasuries & maybe $USD) goes with it. Think GFC part 2. Bullion & PM stocks take a sharp but final tumble before entering a new bullmarket phase. Think post GFC rally to new highs.

3. The broad market crashes suddenly and everything (with the exception of the bond market & maybe $USD) goes with it. However bullion & PM stocks break below their long term support and don't recover for years, and in that case we are all sc....d!(exceptions to the rule would be low cost producers (LCP) who can still make a good profit at much lower bullion prices and they will always atrract investors, IDC could be a LCP which is why the odds are better than most of their peers IMO).
However as long as central banks in a race to maintain a competitive advantage continue to debase their own currencies and the physical demand for bullion is still there (i.e. central banks,the Chinese and Russians etc. continue to buy bullion in record amounts), then i just can't see this scenario prevailing IMO.

Just remember what the herd were thinking when bullion and PM stocks crashed at the height of the GFC. What did most of them do? Sell sell sell !! In hindsight did they make the right decision? The past does not = the future but groundhog day, well this is the dilemna PM investors find themsleves in again. I continue to study sentiment & strength indicators for this sector, and these signals are FLASHING ALL TIME LOWS / EXTREMES. Not saying that there's no more pain to come though!

I'm looking at IDC and calculating probabilities based on the fundamentals. Sector technicals are scaring people off in droves right now but if you are a contrarian investor and can afford to stomach a loss on paper (potentially for a while), then the current environment IMO = opportunity to invest at LIFETIME LOWS. Think Forrest Gump and Apple.

Finally, just put in another order for IDC. At this rate, will be in Venice's league in no time. Fortunately wifey has already left me but soon may need to go look for real job if this IDC beast turns into a carcass :-)

p.s.s. Hal2000, thanks for pointing out that it was only Tony Burgess who didn't own shares, however I thought i saw another name in there, obviously not Steve P's obvious.

To The Captain, now is not the time to think about short term pains & gains mate (my opinion only), especially before the WRZ announcement that should provide us with more certainty and a slight technical boost if nothing else IMO. Get some fresh air, hang out with loved ones and eat & sleep well. Hang in there everyone.