"How long would he last as a CEO. 5 years in a row profit forecast is severely downgraded. But swan does not have one downgrade a year he has several."
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There's several IMF papers looking at the problem of Treasuries the world over not being able to accurately forecast outcomes... they are constantly revising upwards and downwards, and by multi billions.
When I was working in Treasury there were 3 distinct revision periods that were published... As far as I can recall the budget usually never looked like the outcome because:
1. Govts cant help themselves introducing new programs during the year 2. Changes in unemployment numbers impacts the welfare budget 3. Indexation numbers (CPI and Population Growth) might be revised mid year which changes any funding that is formula driven 4. Taxes go up n down 5. Changes in investment returns, dividends, etc
Swan might be a goose but I gave a previous example of Canada which illustrates how fluppin tough it is being boss of the Treasury these days. Lower revenues and no political will to make severe cuts (I don't blame em, can anyone give a happy ending story to the current rounds of fiscal austerity?)
