where's disco, page-76

Great charts and guidance, acouch. Indispensible.

In Australia today:

Twenty Leaders -2.1%
50 Leaders -2.1%
XJO -2%
XAO (All Ords) -2%
Small Ordinaries -1.8%
Financials (ex Property Trusts) -2.2%
Materials -2.2%
Consumer Staples -2.9%
Energy -1.8%
Health -2.3%
Telecoms -0.1%
Consumer Discretionary -1.3%

Comment: The people who got caught up in Friday’s mania, were saying today, “What was I thinking” as they rushed for the exit doors. Today’s 20-Day Relative Volume wasn’t disastrous – about 94.8%.

Around 11 this morning, our market was down about -1.7%. Some hopefuls tried to "Buy-the-Dip" and pushed the market up about +0.5%, but then got slaughtered. The market was steadily down for the rest of the day.

Technical Comment on the XJO:
The XJO finished at 5015.4. Major horizontal Support: 4981.3. 40-Day TMA is at 5010. Those are the two critical supports.
Indicators
RSI9: 43.7. Negative.
MACD Histogram. Below zero. Negative
MACD: Below zero. Negative. (Sell-the-rallies.)
Stochastic: 37.7. Negative.
CCI: -82.5. Negative.
ADX – the trend is down.

The short term trend is down. So far, no indicators are reading Oversold, so there’s probably more in this.

Until Critical Support is broken to the downside, there’ll be a lot of bulls still buying the dips. Maybe they’re right. Maybe this is just a storm in a tea-cup and not one of Nassim Taleb’s Black Swans. Really, is Cyprus all that important in the scheme of things? We’ll see how the Buy-the-Dips Mob gets on this week. The MACD says the Australian market now belongs to the Sell-the-Rallies Mob. They would have been doing that on Friday. I think they’re the Smart Money now.

Materials has now completed a massive H/n/S pattern, tested the neckline as resistance and failed there. It's now broken decisively below supports. Here's the weekly chart:

Purists would tell me I should wait till the end of the week before making that call. Fair enough. I'd better wait. :) But, at this stage, it ain't looking pretty.

Redbacka