business 101, page-3

Hi Colinchi

You state:
"Things will change later in the year when gold reaches $1800 again"

Not sure on what basis you make this assertion. Can you please substantiate.

From where I'm sitting there is simply nothing (in the normal course of the economic world) to suggest that gold will see 1800 in the near or medium term. The Fed "QE stimulation" over the past 6 months has done nothing to give gold a push. US economy shows serious signs of recovery - thus risk-on for investors and moving out of gold. Buffett saw this and got out at early stage.

The Cyprus incident gave a slight nudge (for 24 hours) but fears have already dissapeared and gold is already retracting. So what triggers are you contemplating to see a change from risk-on to risk-off and investor movement back into gold. - Ignoring micro factors pertaining to SAR.

Already some fund managers have talked about gold averaging down for the year to 1300 and even lower. That said, and as i'm writing this a commentator on CNBC say that gold should trend upward in second half of year beacause there'll be more money printing in US - but that doesn't fly when looking at past 6 months. I'd like to hold faith that it will happen because as it is I've resigned to the fact that I'll have to hold SAR for a very long time (averaging 43c).

A possible spike might be created by the growing conflict in the middle-east that could spill over in serious conflict (God forbid). Otherwise there is not anything that suggest to me that gold will be rising to the 1800 level in the coming year. Sure gold will spike a bit once the markets pull back after recent high but that will only be temporarily.

But then again, I'm visually impaired so who am I to cast a view. As such, I'd be very interested to learn what your view and why you see gold at the 1800 level later in year.

Thanks
Regards