GXY galaxy resources limited

negative remarks, page-4

  1. 23,958 Posts.
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    The reason the price dropped is that many shareholders do not understand the fundamentals of the company and that
    there is a lack of trust in the predominantly Chinese
    board.

    Fundamentals:
    Revenue.................?
    We could guess $8K/ton x 17K = $136 mil
    Cost of production......? Since yesterday cost of spodumene
    approx $365/ton FOB WA.
    Let's say $5k/ton (Total).........$85 mil

    NPAT....................?
    let's say...............$51 mil

    EPS.....................?
    Say.....................9.1c

    Forward P/E.............?
    say..................... 12

    Forward SP value .......?
    say ...................$1.09

    The problem is that the stock is still speculative and the
    company has not given the market enough guidance on which
    to base a fundamental view of the company; hence the guesstimate.

    As per above there are too many things up in the air and
    the lithium market, like rare earths, seems to be shrouded
    in "commercial in confidence" or simply Chinese Confidential.

    In other commodities such as copper, gold, Iron Ore or coal there is a benchmark price and differences in companies is defined in efficiency terms; that is how cheaply and reliably a company can get product to the market.

    The trust factor is harder to guage and it is a pity that
    more companies like GXY do not provide the owners with
    more comprehensive and timely info to avoid suspicion
    and speculation.

    Cheers
    Moorookamick

    PS: If you are concerned about a cheap buy-out of GXY then perhaps you could email the FIRB & the Treasurer and express your concern. (with today's political moves, however, you may have to hold on the Treasurer until tomorrow!) MM








 
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