The reason the price dropped is that many shareholders do not understand the fundamentals of the company and that
there is a lack of trust in the predominantly Chinese
board.
Fundamentals:
Revenue.................?
We could guess $8K/ton x 17K = $136 mil
Cost of production......? Since yesterday cost of spodumene
approx $365/ton FOB WA.
Let's say $5k/ton (Total).........$85 mil
NPAT....................?
let's say...............$51 mil
EPS.....................?
Say.....................9.1c
Forward P/E.............?
say..................... 12
Forward SP value .......?
say ...................$1.09
The problem is that the stock is still speculative and the
company has not given the market enough guidance on which
to base a fundamental view of the company; hence the guesstimate.
As per above there are too many things up in the air and
the lithium market, like rare earths, seems to be shrouded
in "commercial in confidence" or simply Chinese Confidential.
In other commodities such as copper, gold, Iron Ore or coal there is a benchmark price and differences in companies is defined in efficiency terms; that is how cheaply and reliably a company can get product to the market.
The trust factor is harder to guage and it is a pity that
more companies like GXY do not provide the owners with
more comprehensive and timely info to avoid suspicion
and speculation.
Cheers
Moorookamick
PS: If you are concerned about a cheap buy-out of GXY then perhaps you could email the FIRB & the Treasurer and express your concern. (with today's political moves, however, you may have to hold on the Treasurer until tomorrow!) MM
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