Good stuff being discussed - shame about current SP.
As an aside, once saw a quote that went something like "Price first, fundamentals second". Keep that in the back of your mind for a moment.
In my opinion, all posts are just opinions - just some posters that have them as beliefs.
If you want to back the truck up a bit and "rediscover" some of the available data on midstream costs (for Cooper Basin) and infrastructure requirement look at the Milstones posts. I'm not going to rehash it as the overall opinion was most didn;t understand it and didn't care for it. IMO understanding that is fundamental to understanding CB unconventional opportunity and ICN.
Auto, we agree and disagree on the same points - which in of itself is a bit of a conundrum. The reason for that I think is my view is formed from does the (risked) value presented warrant an investment to capture the upside and your view may be formed from does the risk presented warrant an investment to capture potential upside. So I guess is Reward/Rick vs Risk/Reward. Always good to get your perspective.
Invertedva, Agreed - part of the beauty and part of the beast is that CVX views $349M (assuming whole thing) as a pittance and maybe their 5% deposit on an asset to keep in their portfolio. CVX likes big projects - so if the promise is shown the development will come much faster than any of us would image (and I don't mean just drilling wells).
Gassed, Hope the 3rd grade English crack wasn't directed at me :-) What ICN has with BPT was a Farmin Agreement to jointly venture into drilling a well (Halifax-1) in ATP855P. What BPT has with CVX is a Farmout Agreement. So they are all Joint Venture partners in the sense that each has its own working interest.
Maybe old school, but a Joint Venture agreement ought to be signed off, else its just pooled ownership interests. An example might be no PR unless all participants agree!
There can be disconnects between what the company puts out as communications and what posters on HC interpret.
Auto, Back to Halifax-1 flows for a sec. So yes, the pressure should build in a well during shutin. The problem is whether formation or frac fluid has accumulated to a degree that slugs the well and causes the flow rate to drop (which remains my guess - not even an opinion there). Now what onlt reservior engineers can answer did they get enough data prior to shut-in. Do we have a handle on IP, IP10? Did we get close to an IP30 number (don't think so).
Not saying this is the case, but 4Mmmcfpd IP and declining to 2Mmcfpd IP30 for a shale gas well is not bad (may even be good). Overpressured shale wells do that. I'll wait though for engineering result.
Costs - sure Hz will be more expensive. But lets not ever forget that these are science wells at present so $16M for Vert and $20M for Hz are absolutely not indicative of what they would be in development.
So for me the reward is still well above the risk (but I say that for BCC also and I'm still waiting on that one).
And if anyone has any doubts I'm not of "doubtful agenda".
ICN Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)