Low gas prices in the US with the entrance of shale gas is likely to be shortlived. Yes - there is over supply of gas but you have a huge amount of Capex upfront in drilling horizontal wells and staged fracture jobs before you get a flow back and return on investment. Based on published ASX reports (Oz companies operating in US shale), the flow rates drop off pretty rapidly. In effect, this sets a gas (and oil) floor price that is likely to be considerably higher than where we are now.
The current US gas shale boom reminds me of the Oz coal seam gas boom five years ago when the small CSG players were all drilling and flowing gas to get their reserves up for a take over - the classic window dressing. When the major's are throwing money around for reserves, who can blame them. How many of the Oz CSG companies are making money now - none. They all need LNG pricing to make it stack up. The only difference right now is that the US has the pipeline infrastructure that allows the gas to be sold, flooding the market.
Obama is doing a good job of converting the coal fired power stations in to gas so don't expect things to remain static for too long.
My own opinion of course.
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