loose valuation of petsec, page-15

Long term chart of Natural gas prices:

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/NG/M


The chart shows that Natural Gas prices peaked at the end of 2000 at around $10.00 --- this corresponds with a peak in Crude Oil prices at $36 around the same time.

Crude oil is now again approaching this level, yet, gas prices ($5.50) are at half the level they were at the same point in the cycle in 2000.

There's room to move in either direction, imho.


If the war with Iraq is resolved quickly and with relative little distruption to Middle East oil supplies, then we could see Crude Oil at around $20pb, and Gas at around $3.50.

If the Iraq conflict get messy, and drags on for significantly longer than expected, we could face an energy crisis.... in which case we could see Crude Oil above $50pb, and Gas at around $8/10.