sp is holding up well., page-45

I agree with pretty much everything you say Bruce.
It's why I only hold ABU now - not that it hasn't dropped as well but I am less concerned about its valuation at near term lower gold prices than I am about the producers. Therefore I was less concerned about it falling and staying down after they begin producing even if the POG did break $1500 and stay below. All of the producers I know of were priced for gold prices of $1600 or higher. A prolonged price below $1500 may see some of the higher cost producers fall further while some of the lower cost producers may recover from current sell-offs if gold stabilises around 1350-1400. If gold regains $1500 and holds, most should recover a lot of the recent falls.
I was more confident of the short term price of gold until a few months ago with the level of manipulation and the level of concern being publicesd over the importance of support at $1525. That much publicity over the importance of the $1525 level set it up for an easy attack, and attack they did. That was why I moved to increasingly stating I was confident of the long term price but anything could happen in the short term. That was why I shifted to only day trading the producers most of the time recently.
The attack came first with the down grades by Soc Gen followed closely by GS and a couple of days later Draghi putting in the final blow. Since when was the sale of any individual countries gold have to be publicesed befor that country was given a chance to sell? Draghi guaranteed o lower price if Cyprus does sell. Why would he do that publicly other than to drive down the POG? Then we have reports of futures contracts the size of a years mines supply being sold in one hit in an illiquid period of the market driving the POG through all buy orders to below support to trigger stop loss selling.
That's comparable to an insto with 200 mill shares in NCM selling "at market" with no limit driving the price down through every buyer currently on the screen. His average price might be $12 when the last price was $16. If he sells in an orderly way he would achieve a far greater price without triggerring massive stop loss orders. Why would anyone sell in this way with that many at a time when there is less liquidity? That part might be speculation, the closely spaced timing of Soc Gen, GS and Draghi's public comment was not.
All manipulation ultimately fails.
The timing is obviously too difficult to predict.
If China and India were not soaking up so much gold I would be more concerned about how long they could keep it down.
With ABU's grades and market leading capex and very low op costs it doesn't matter. There is good upside to the current mc.
Previous targets I posted on gold were based on chart patterns showing a clear up trend and showing projections. I usually stated "if the current trend continues" then by such a date the price would reach whatever price was projected by the chart. Those targets obviously were no longer valid over those time frames after the trend changed from up trend to sideways consolidation. I also gave long term targets based on the correlation of POG to monetary supply. Those charts show a very strong correlation and I see no reason to believe the correlation will not continue. Gaps open up regularly between the two lines (money supply and POG) and then they close again.
If the strong correlation continues then the only threat to long term POG would be a shrinking of money supply.
Japan is going to double money supply in just the next two years. The currency wars will increase pressure on other countries to follow suit to varying extents. The US talks about an exit strategy but faces trillion dollar deficits every year with no hope of funding those without its printing.
I've said before that I wonder if Japan also talked about exit strategies during its current decades long QE program.
Instead, decades on, they are accelerating it with no end in sight.
Other than the short term effects of manipulation why should I change my view on the long term direction?
Like I said earlier, every one here is more interested in knowing where it will be in the short term, not the long term. I can't offer a prediction on that but $1000 won't shock me, and neither will a move back above $1500 and a new high within a year or two. If that sounds too difficult to believe, take another look at the chart I posted late yesterday. In the 1970-80 bull run it did the equivalent of a move to $960 now followed by a move to $8000. (based on the initial move from $35 to $200 (similar to the current $260 to $1920), the 50% correction to $100 ($1920 to $960 now) and then the larger move from $100 to $800 ($960 to $8000 over the next 4-5 years).
Of course the same will not necessarily occur. We may not see $1,000 or any closer to it than $1,300 and we may get no where near $8,000. However history does show us what is possible.