afr today, page-51

Hi Khaliqs,

Good posts, and I like your thinking. The change in the inputs used in the BFS are best examined individually through a sensitivity analysis. Unfortunately, I don't think DML released the full study, so it's hard to know the impact this will have to the project's worth. If you can find it, this would be immensely valuable right now...... I would buy you beer.

Hi Symbol,

Total stock sold short is 1.66%. This is up a reasonable way in percentage terms over the month. It was at 0.4% on 1 March.

Hi Josh,

Cathay walked away. This was from the AFR on 18 Feb:

The billionaire owner of Chinese private equity group Cathay Fortune has hit back at claims he flouted Australian takeover law in withdrawing a $830 million bid for copper miner Discovery Metals. Discovery chairman Gordon Galt wrote to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission last week to complain about Cathay Fortune’s conduct in the takeover..

My two cents,

CF are playing games, trying to undermine management. I give the CR 95% chance of proceeding. DML would have agreements in place by now with institutional investors. CF know it's too late to stop the train, which is why they timed their letter with a certain to happen 'get out' caveat. Further, if CF were serious, they would have gone to management and got their support for another proposal first....

Put another way, what possible difference does a 'dilutive CR' have on the overall MV of the company from their perspective if they're launching a takeover? Worst case the MV increases by the value of the cash receipted through the CR. Further, the line about 'saving the company from receivership' is also BS. Bankruptcy would be advantageous to them, because they could buy it from the receiver at a low-ball negotiated price. The only bad outcome for them, is the company slowly ramping up and succeeding with their position diluted. In my view.