Poet…
Interesting comments, but having spoken to management… here is my opinion on the Quarterly Activities Report in comparison to yours…Firstly, excellent progress reported in moving AVB closer to producer status....
1. Mine Finance: $50m is not a great Capex hurdle for most Financiers…A DFS will definitely be required with all the associated due diligence components….AVB is already well advanced in discussions and as per Ann. preliminary “least dilutive financing option for Stage I, debt financing is being advanced and with indicative term sheets having been received with a select group of South American and international banks are evaluating the project with a view of providing credit-approved term sheets in coming weeks”…So on the one hand the first tranche of 20 million appears a lot of money, BUT for a company like AVB with the “Key Project Attributes” evident…I would argue AVB is well positioned with excellent economies of scale…It is a competitive market, money is in short supply, sure….but AVB is NOT like other JORC’ed hopefuls in the queue for finance...IT has solid Key Project Parameters…with the first tranche approval being potentially only weeks away…i.e. AVB management critically are still continuing to tick the correct boxes…
2. Very good news on Power availability and DNPM regulatory framework approval of resource suggests the requisite Exploration Report (proving all categories of the resource) has been approved…Only 2 more steps to full Mining Concession for AVB’s LOM at AN…This is excellent since generally once first stage has been approved…it is a matter of degrees and further bureaucratic shuffling of the relevant paperwork to get the Full Concession to Mine…albeit still frustrating to deal with any Mines Dept officials in any country…
3. Exploration and Working Capital: this is NOT concern as opposed to Mine Finance….Poet you are correct in saying $5.5m (less $300k for Conceicao) = $5.2m and at $2m/quarter burn rate they would have only 8 months of cash left….But what you are NOT taking into account here Is the Current ANN. clearly stated they will wind back drilling OPEX as and when required…AVB have consistently proved they are efficient money managers…Even Admin expenses have been consistently been kept to below 10%...I would think slowing down of drilling ($2.3m down to $1.7m) means a VERY diligent use of funds…also a less expensive drill program means strong finance sheets to present to the prospective financiers [plural]…How many rigs working? Who cares as long as AVB road to producer status in not interfered with…Slowing the drilling activity is currently A BIG positive with AVB's attention to the immediacy of Maiden Revenue Streams last quarter 2014…The big portfolio of tenements can wait…notwithstanding the continuation of drilling at Sao Jorge…AVB will still potentially get Vale money 12-18 months out to support drilling the western areas….
4. Trindade North. "Irregularities… The full TN picture is found on the Brazil DNPM site and the Legal site and cross-relate the two and YES the royalty due to AVB from Vale is apparently conditional ONLY on the amount of JORC iron found….TP has already indicated that there is at least $10m for AVB as a condition precedent for Vale purchase… The more drilling Vale does the more it pays AVB, so there is an incentive to get away with drilling a lesser amount…but Vales “AVB Exploration Report” will be or would be rejected by DNPM.... IT MUST BE NOTED TN’s mining lease will NOT be up for grabs…The Brazilian DNPM Mining Code only authorizes the existing and original holder of the tenement [AVB] to carry out exploration…Vale will always be obligated contractually to pay AVB regardless and nobody else, so regardless of TN’s so-called irregularities…ONLY Vale owns the contiguous nature of the Ore Body at TN…AVB will always have possessory legal right to the ML even if the legal rights have been diminished due to the aforesaid irregularities….
5. Westerly Properties….Exploration in 2013 is NOT hit and miss...AVB has a team of qualified technicians…The Geo Tech Analytics produces definitive empirical based results…Poet, I might say this is very sloppy unscientific view you hold …some here, have no mining experience and TU your post unwittingly…but others here can clearly read this mistaken view…
6. PB Drilling…. In terms of return for dollar, further drilling here is marginal….I think what you are trying to say is the drilling conversion rate has markedly been high, by Industry Standards to date…AVB know there is potentially 100 mt between the western and eastern zones and 30-40k conc. Production capacity will be achieved LOM with mining approx. 24 months out …latest PB drilling is on target being consistently contiguous, thickening at depth, increasing grades at depth and open on strike and at depth…100 million ton is a company maker …being typical Carajas Ore signature/chalco deposte…being Magmatic Intrusive Hydro Thermal geological style deposit…[and NOT basil or faulted]…while not the largest deposit in the Carajas PB is mid-size yielding Carajas typical average grade of .95% Cu and .4gm Au…Poet if you are not sure go outside your house in QLD and pace out hole 31 etal…51 meters [with 1.18% Cu]…and think about the narrow laporitic/saporalitic zone above the Primary Zone with the ore body sitting in relatively easy to mine dyoritic/aporitic hanging and foot-walls….then reconsider your “no earth-shaker” comment...
7. The Latest round of Drilling Results are excellent with Cu equiv. just under 900,000tn…On the next upgrade AVB’s JORC will easily go over 1 million Tn…commensurate to AVB moving to MID TIER Mine Status….If no map is supplied whose going to quibble..So have to copy an earlier map and get to work plotting…Drill meters = 4000m PB and 500m regional Total 4500m this quarter….sounds on target to me..
8. JORC Upgrade: It is the scale of economies of conversion rate on drilling hence the "return" on the Drilling Opex…meaning AVB currently showing BRILLIANT "returns on drilling Opex" or value for expenditure…I would argue the market will eventually take note of the 900k tn Cu. of Cu equiv…
9. New Project: previously alluded to and nothing tangible mentioned…probably because TP MW and Clive Jones are seriously busy getting 1st Tranche of AN finance locked in…
10…. 2nd Hand Production Plant equipment purchase where nothing was said in the Ann....was because it’s NOT a big deal…According to AVB management Brazil is awash with High Quality Production gear at low cost…No $deposit was placed by AVB because it was simply not required yet…Opportunity Cost Theory suggests leaving the money in the accounts…to show prospective financiers solid $numbers to back AVB’s case…
The Stage 1 1st tranche of finance holds the key here….NOT the Vale money that’s a distraction from getting AN into production ASAP then the SP will lift.... Yes AVB will needs $20m min. to maintain its exploration rate over the next 2 - 3 years…but AN revenue stream 18 months will pay for it…with AVB graduating from explorer to producer resulting in a major re-rate $1 plus IMO…. Another excellent Ann. from TP and the team…
dyor
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