OK clearer now.
Does not work if expectation is 25C for a non BN win. If however the expectation was 40C for an opposition win then there is an opportunity to make $, as follows
A) Buy $100,000 LYC @ 48C, if BP win = profit of $30,000.
B) bet $18,000 (with bookies at 13/10).
If BN win then you have lost the $18k bet, but made $30k on the shares so net profit on the deal of $12k.
Else, you will have lost $20K on the shares but won $23K on the bet = profit of $3k.
Hmm... depends on your view of the downside VsV the upside.
Just for fun but one should always play the odds.
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