crucial fact, page-64

Sharks,
Proved reserves can be found in the Petroleum Resource Management System determined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. In (very short) summary, Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable, with a 90% confidence interval.
I have been pretty consistent in the provision of evidence as to why reserves (1P and 2P - they are both related) should be downgraded in light of MAD's development well failure rate.
Let me re-iterate for you:
1. They have drilled a very large number of dry development wells on their 'fairway' acreage. Excluding high impact wells, the failure rate on development wells over recent quarters has been 4 of 11 in Sept 12 quarter, 6 of 14 in Dec 12 quarter and 2 of 24 in Mar 13 quarter. This has 2 effects. 1 - the oil they thought would be recovered from those well locations isn't commercially recoverable. This is an indisputable fact. 2 - the offsetting locations are necessarily impacted by the dry development holes. It is standard practice for reserve consultants to review their estimates (and they are just estimates after all) in light of actual performance. Since 24% of development wells drilled over the last 9 months in a statistically valid sample size (49 wells) have been plugged and abandoned wihtout producing a barrel of oil, it is fanciful to believe that materially all of the remaining locations remain.
2. They have sold reserves to Gulf South. Another indisputable fact.
The above data is available for all to see. To pretend that they haven't drilled a material number of dry wells which had been categorised as reserves is to deny indisputable facts.
I agree that I cannot make a definitive statement that the reserves will be downgraded as I am not in a position to engage a reserve report from a known reserves consultant over these assets though the dry wells that have been drilled cannot be speculated away.