KAR 0.79% $1.91 karoon energy ltd

calling ya, page-3

  1. Ya
    6,809 Posts.
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    Long & windy post follows.
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    As for the progress at Pro-1, COP should run the 7" liner & then start drilling the 6" section in the Jurassic towards the prognosed TD. This well is about casting the net wide enough to suss out the reservoir extent 14kms Sth of Pos#1. So far, the first 2 holes have been spot on.

    Grace which will b next is what I am looking fwd to, as in, a farmout with anyone, eg Santos or PTR or someone with deeper pockets. Farmout is the key for G#1, as most operators look at Buffon-1 & Kontiki-1 results & have a think about the risk &/or upside involved at G#1.

    Conoco's 10% in WA-314P makes no sense as they are more interested in WA315 & 398 where the greater Posiedon field lies, so for that I'd like 2 see 1 more wells drilled on a 18kms NorthEast frm P#1 & then if that's still got the goods (like Crown-1) then drill 2 infill wells towards P#1 & prove the J-sands continuity.

    That's Browse for u. Now for Brz.

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    Bilby is better then 'roo1. I was disappointed in Chook as it didn't mirror the nearby Piracuca field, but that's exploration for u. Will b interesting to see what Rubes have in mind. As per their recent 2013 reports, on their website, after B'by#1 they r eligible for a 'Operator' status in all the 5 blocks with Karoon, whatever that means.

    Nxt week though, KAR should announce the progress on how the SWC (sidewall coring) went at Bil#1.

    Note the oil pools in the Santos basin r not connected. At Maruja we had a 38API oil, 'Roo1 had a 42API gravity oil frm the Eocence reservoir.

    Bilby has a 33API (or 0.87 gm/cc density) oil, which still is just inside the Light oil category 9note dens of water is 1). The sample recovered frm the MDT tool chamber shows that there is juice.

    So, besides the oil density, Porosity (+18% is good for oil of this density & we've had 23%) looks good, as is the reservoir Pressure recorded on the MDT tool.

    The challenge is how much more is the '70m net payzone' of 'oil bearing sands' likely 2b. Prolly another 10m(?), we don't know yet. Analysing porosity & oil saturation on wireline logs is an art form as some of us in this sector very well know ;)

    Oil here is not in a single chunky sandy section, but sits in inter-bedded sandy units frm the Eocene to Top Cretaceous sections.

    I would target the best 8 to 12m decent sandy unit & test it, will leave that for Rubes to worry abt as they r paying $70mil for this drill.

    Note, as they drill deeper they will hit the oil-water contact at some point, hence the plan to drill updip & hit the 'gross payzone' for more 'net pay'.

    Now for the 'Updip' well locations, refer seis slide below frm Rubes recent preso.

     photo K1B1seis2_zps26b727a3.jpg

    There seems 2b couple of faults running very close to both Roo & Billby. So IMHO this will b a patiently worked out exercise in planning the next well positions to optimise hitting the target reserviors.

    From what's been said by both Rubes & KAR, Bilby's (70m net frm 3 sections) looks better then Roo's (17m net pay frm the Eocene). Roo-1 however has a shallow reservoir & 30% porosity so should flow well, in my view.

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    Now for the rig availability. After Bilby, the dolphin goes to Anadarko for 1 confirmed well. And then in October, it has to go for a 'check', so it should b available by week-3 of October, if still reqd by our JV to drill both R#2B#2. Refer the Fred Olsen website for all that abt the rig.

    That's all for now, just my thoughts.
 
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