gindalbie metals - a rational analysis , page-55

I continue to hold my shares in GBG however i firmly believe there is now a 50% chance of losing my remaining investment and a 50% chance of getting my money back ( aver price 30 cents > 1million shares.
My view on GBG now is that its destiny is out of the firm control of management and regardless of HARD WORK , survival will depend on luck.
The key variables , Price of I/O , the Aussie Dollar , The TIDES , China I/O demand and I/O supply. this all assumes that GBG executes perfectly in production and shipping.
GBG is a small player in this market and therefore this is another negative for GBG controlling its destiny.
The PLUSes , WA government wants GBG to succeed and our China connection which is a two edge sword.
The recent Cash shortage , met by Ansteel , was a disaster in my mind and i would have preferred the WA government showing positive support by funding the cash shortage with an associated equity option.Instead we have strengthend Ansteel's control of our destiny and more importantly the China bank.
A direct Ansteel takeover is my preferred option now to get my money back.I would see this option being supported by our government versus allowing GBG to fail.The worst case option is GBG defaults on repayments to china bank and Ansteel stands back and the Bank takes control and then sell to Ansteel. The later scenario means existing shareholders lose all their investment.At 16 cents the market is stating this is a real option.
So there are no definites with this stock , luck will drive the final outcome, todate GBG cash planning and results have been poor.