over $1b revenue and more than 40% margin, page-27

When do we become overvalued? Say that by the end of this calender year, we have $1b revenue over 10+ years. That's only $100m revenue per year. Maximum profit of $40m per year. I reckon that's worth a m/c of around where we are - $443m.

Of course, the idea is that they'll keep adding more contracts after this year, so if we double up to factor in potential beyond this year, I reckon the maximum sp/mc in the next month or so is $1.48/$886m. But I reckon that's pretty optimistic and requires a lot of trust.

In the shorter term, it feels like we might be getting to around the right value. I see maybe 85c by the end of the week, and hovering around there until announcement time. Obviously, if the announcement is for a deal around $500m+ over 10 years, then we'd go over $1 because the definition of "major" deal and "significant" deal (those are the words used in the conference call) would be much greater than the current $110m deal.

Of course, this is very rough reasoning, so I'm happy to hear different.

JIMO.