Using about $20 discount from benchmark 62% Fe, AGO should get about US$106/t for standard and US$89/t for value fines, using AUD$85/t cost and 8 mt/yr run rate, AGO should earn about ~$140m in a year, which equates to P/E of around 5.6, still pretty cheap, provided that iron ore price doesn't drop further.
Upsides are:
- significant drop in AUD bring cost down
- management implement cost cutting measures to bring cost down
Downsides are:
- iron ore price drops further, right now AGO can still make $20/t profit from the standard fines, but as we have seen in the past 3 months alone iron ore have dropped by $30/t, AGO will start running losses when benchmark 62% Fe drops below ~105/t if not sooner.
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