$2 is no far , page-186

fast41

Big price moves also occur when fundamentals change and this has nothing to do with traders, chartists or people following the masses.

I was a long term investor in Linc right back in 2007 so have seen a lot of ups and downs.

Recent moves down from $2.70 to $1.38 are due entirely to fundamentals.

(1) They got low on cash again and had to do another capital raising. Yes PB said they didn't have to do one but based on the last quarterly report they would of been down to their last $18M if they hadn't raised another $200M.

(2) Alaska was a total disaster, they were supposed to drill 3 wells at a net cost of $35M and ended up only drilling 1 well and as it was the wrong type of drilling they failed to get a flow rate and went over budget.

(3) They were supposed to achieve 6000-7000 bopd Gross by 31st Dec 2012 and grow this to 8000-10000 bopd gross by 31st Dec 2013.
As the average bopd for the Mar 2013 was less than 4000 bopd net it is very clear these targets and hence the Cash flow positive statements previously made will not be met.
This has just been also stated from BBY who just did a site visit.

(4) Admin costs and cash burn continue to increase which contradicts what PB said would happen last year.


(5) There still is No China or Exxaro deal or a Teresa Sale.

I think this explains the SP drop.

I think the company is now no longer an investment play it is more a high risk gamble.
If I want to gamble I go to the Casino which is why I won't invest in Linc again until I see the company manged like a company should be.