Hi FB
Q. PP you could have got $2.40 today - do you not have an investment plan and rules?
A. I did not watch the ASX today – I looked at it late morning, and again at COB. I do not have trading rules, because I am not a trader. As for investment rules, I look for a reasonable investment return (dividend plus franking credits), and a company that is growing EPS, and hence DPS. TGA has met these two criteria since 2007, and this year is its first disappointment. I now must decide if this is a long-term problem, or a temporary hiatus. Obviously, if I am aware of something manifestly better, I would switch to the better investment option. The problem is, I am unaware of a stellar alternative – they are there for sure, but beyond my ken.
Q. "but I'll not move until I re-examine the situation thoroughly in coming weeks." Are you not worried that while you fiddle TGA may burn?
A. It is not a major concern, but it could happen, and has happened in the past. Basically, I am simply not the worrying type. I have inherited an anti-sumptuary streak, so I'll never get around to spending what I have, so losing or making money is more in the nature of an amusement, and ego thing, rather than something about which I fret.
Q. If $2.40 wasn't enough how much are you hoping for?
A. I bought the shares to get the income in my retirement, so I had no concept of hoping for something in the sense that a trader hopes for a price to exit and make a capital gain. I always cherished the fond notion of a $3.00 SP – not as an exit price, but rather as a fair-value price and an ego massage of the what-a-clever-boy-am-I variety. The flattened EPS trajectory has shifted the time frame for that to happen, and I blame the NCML-related diversion of focus and funding for that. I need to give the matter of when I sell TGA some thought, but I can say there is no single SP. Even at $2.30, I might sell some to pay off a $200K mortgage, but that is 87,000 shares, which leaves 413,000 in hand. There is also the matter of estate planning – that could suggest selling to crystalise the $250K profit in the SMSF portfolio, and I have a circa $100K loss that arose from crud that I had bought in my personal portfolio that I could exhaust by selling about 100,000 personally-held TGA shares.
Life was much simpler when the SP was in the no-brainer, sub-$2.00 arena, because then I did not have to think.
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