goldmans changing view, page-8

AGO share price has a bad correlation with the io price. I think in a previous post I stated that the AGO share price is better dictated by what's happening with long dated futures/swaps prices. The correlation with the io spot price is 0.37 and from my work, it was a steady increase to the 9th month swap at 0.64. Projecting this out (using two methods), the best correlation occurs with the 20th or 26th month swap. So I figured it'd be good to look these up... www.sgx.com

the 20M swap is cited at $102.81 -0.94 -0.9% but 1 trade has gone through for 10 lots at a price of $107.25.

the 26M swap is cited at $101.81 -0.36 -0.4% but no trades were registered.

And the 30M swap actually shows a price increase of 0.14 0.1%

And the 42M swap is up 1.02 1.1%

So I'll put it out there I wouldn't be surprised followeing the initial knee jerk that the stock will either be down a little or up... just putting it out there.