So I have some feedback on my estimated analysis. Revenue and costs are too low. They weren't prepared to say by how much so I can't adjust with any certainty.
Nevertheless, if Gindalban is right that GBG will burn about $A40M a month in the commissioning and ramp-up phase and it is completed end Jul'13 then KML would have $35M in the bank at the end of Sept'13 and so would not be able to pay China Bank interest of $50M without further funding from GBG and Ansteel which may be possible with GBG having $35M as of end Apr'13. Having said that, I don't know if Gindalban's estimate is correct and in the absence of accurate information from KML, we can only wait and trust KML's judgement here - to pursue more pre-payments from Ansteel and a new payment schedule from China Bank to derisk their financial position.
I'm not going to try to estimate GBG's/KML's cash position anymore since there are too many variables, uncertainties and insufficient information in this business to be confident about accuracy. Back to watching shipping numbers and GBG announcements. sdo
GBG Price at posting:
11.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
