Ann: Extension of Share Purchase Plan , page-20

aburbe: You're clearly talking about PYM. What you're saying is irrelevant though. Yep, I bought in at an average of around 12.5c if I remember correctly, and the share price is currently around 1.7c, so it's a very heavy loss. You seem to be trying to make the point that it means I don't know what I'm doing, but it's a baseless supposition. Before any of the last few wells were drilled anyone with any sense knew it was a big risk. If the well was a duster the price would crash badly, if it gushed oil we'd have a multibagger. It was a risk, I understood that. Several times I have snagged multibaggers, they're awesome. Several times I have lost money, and I suppose that sucks. When you're talking about a junior oil explorer like PYM it's an obvious case of calculating the risk vs. reward based on how likely success is and what the outcomes of success and failure are. If you play that game enough times you'll end up with successes and failures, as I have. One multibagger covers multiple losses, even if you lose 100% of your money (not that I have... yet). Using PYM as an example just shows that I was willing to take a risk, not that I analysed anything badly. If you want to read through the PYM discussions you'll see that I was always the one reminding everyone that there was a very real possibility of things going badly which would bring about a price collapse, while everyone else was talking about how it was pretty much certain we'd have success (which was stupid, because if success was that certain the share price would have been multiples of what it was, and I'd have just sold out). That situation is completely different from many others, including the situation of AEB at the moment. AEB isn't an explorer. If we're to believe them, they have the technology, it's just a matter of putting it into use. It's not like they're going to search under a rock for sunlight or try to produce algae out of gravel or analyse algae to see if you can get oil out of it. It's a different situation you analyse in a different way. If you're going to look at other companies I've invested in, how about discussing my multibaggers? I'm not going to boast about them here because they're also irrelevant. I am not fussed if you want to discuss my failures if they're relevant. I like analysing failures as it helps to prevent future ones, and sometimes helps to create successes. Looking back, I still think PYM was a good risk (years ago). Between now and the next drill I'm pretty sure there will be an increase in share price due to anticipation (though the increase won't start for a while and unfortunately my money is tied up until then), and when the next well is drilled there will either be a severe collapse (probably to around 0.5c) or 20+c, maybe much more. I now expect the odds of success to be quite low, unless they get an experienced driller in to do the work, which for several reasons probably won't happen.

If you want to go to PYM and give your analysis of the situation and predictions for the future I would welcome it. If you simply went along to say "Haha, your risk went bad, sucked in", you'd be an idiot. All you've done here is the latter. I have not said "Haha, you AEB investors have lost money, it was obvious that was going to happen!", I have always analysed and given my expectations and predictions etc. There's a big difference between saying "I think this is the situation and thus xyz will happen" and "XYZ happened".

Gorsen: I don't agree that I have simply looked at the technicals and ignored the fundamentals. I am primarily interested in fundamentals, but I also acknowledge that technicals play a role, especially in the absence of big news or when the chart tells a very strong story with very strong negative predictions. When you get those two things happening together, the technicals become quite a reliable way to predict things. AEB doesn't really seem likely to have many aces up the sleeve or rabbits in the hat, and the chart is spectacularly consistent. Charts so rarely do what AEB's is doing - find me another chart which gives a more bleak outlook - I don't think I've ever seen one. Despite that, most of me negative outlook is not based on the chart. The chart just tells me a story, which I think will continue until we see some big news. I can't see any on the near horizon. The existing fundamentals I can see do not compel me.

I'll answer your specific questions. Keep in mind I make no big claims about my technical analysis skills, just as I make no big claims about my skills as an ornithologist, but I am quite capable of knowing for certain when I see a pigeon that it is a bird even if I can't tell you much more, just as I can tell you AEB's chart is utterly disastrous. At this point I would say AEB would need to hit about 24-25c to break the trend to the upside (though that figure will fall over time). If that was sustained for a few days it would indicate a possible end to the downwards trend, and the start of a sideways/neutral pattern. To break into a positive trend we'd need to see something above 28c, but to be certain we'd want to hit 33c. Obviously at any time it's possible that all this could get thrown out by significant news. Again, my T/A skills are nothing amazing, so all I'm happy to say with confidence is that the current trend is extraordinarily regular and strong and thus very likely to continue. Anything more is very speculative.

What price would I buy in at? I wouldn't based on technicals alone, no freaking way. I don't like the fundamentals, I don't dislike them as much as the technicals, but I sure dislike them. If the downwards trend continues, why buy? That's nuts. If it breaks to the downside, why buy? That's nuts - it would make a stable price more likely, but why buy something I dislike the fundamentals of just because I don't expect it to go down in a hurry? If I was keen on technicals (which I'm not) I may like to buy in if the price jumped above 25c and would be very tempted at much above 30c.

I do like the concept of algae oil (hence my initial and ongoing interest in AEB), but I am not convinced of it (which is why I wouldn't put my money anywhere near it) - too much of it just doesn't add up in terms of the economics(not talking about AEB specifically there). If I was to buy in it would be due to the right combination of news (and good SGS doesn't count as news to me because it's expected) and price movement. If they announced they were reliably able to produce oil of quality comparable to crude for a total production price of significantly less than crude and it was actually being done on small commercial/precommercial scale rather than just predicted and promised, I would be willing to buy in at multiples of the current price (that news would be good for AEB but that would pale into insignificance next to the implications for the planet, and AEB would be massive global news). Without globe-grabbing news, the only way I would buy in at the moment would be if I could somehow get some at about 14c or less and be able to sell them very quickly.

I am hoping they surprise with some good news before the capital raising winds up.