the perfect time for shell, page-17

Appreciate the insights and knowledge Taipan, have only recently returned to look again at Nexus. Some observations and a question or two.

If LDM is serious about better communications with the market and shareholders then he needs to dispense with the gobbledigook and do some straight talking.

For example "divest a tranche" should be "sell an interest" if that is what he really means. He talks of a "superior production profile" as part of the HOA with Santos. Why not just leave it as Nexus plans to increase production at Longtom by workovers to Longtom #4 and eventually drill Longtom #5. What's this nonsense about an "optimised development program".

And what is the new pricing mechanism that will increase net cash flow. More importantly what is the current rate of production now that the field is back in operation.

And what does he imply with the comment that "standard remedies exist under the GSA to address default by either party" Can they get compensation for the supply disruption or not?

The whole HOA thing was a bit curious. Why set up conditions that need to be met by 30 June if you have no intention of meeting them?

Looks to me like they would be better off maximising returns from Longtom. Crux remains a bit iffy and dependent on floating LNG technology yet to be proven. And with new LNG supplies coming on the market from East Africa and from the US in future years the JV would need to get its act together pretty quickly.

Longtom on the other hand puts gas into a domestic market that should see 50 to 100% increase in prices in coming years. I just don't know how good Longtom is and what Gemfish might deliver and whether Longtom #5 and maybe #6 would deliver much extra production. One problem there as I see it is that they are hostage to Santos given they use their transport and production infrastructure.

They mentioned last year a planned 30% decrease in admin costs so bit curious again to see admin costs in the MArch qtr some 25% more than they were in the December qtr!!!


Taipan you say there is a seller in the market pushing down the share price. Can you expand on that a little please. If a substantial shareholder was selling we should see a Form 604 saying so and identifying the seller. So far this year Macquarie and Credit Suisse have added to their holdings.

Be interested to know why. Are they just trading the stock or passing scrip on to short sellers or are they interested in an investment in which they see value not reflected in the share price? By a takeover perhaps. The share price has halved since the last 604's from CS and MQ.

Appreciate your comments.