I can see LYC continuing to struggle for a long time yet after today's news. That announcement is not good for one key reason. The board have now accepted that their company's performance will be dictated by the supply saturated REE market. One month they may only produce 500t, and the next month they may produce 900t. The impact of this is two-fold.
Firstly it makes it very hard for the company to forecast profitability; income is going to jump around, a lot, while ongoing fixed costs such as admin and overheads are always going to remain.
Secondly, the recovery of the REE throughout the concentration process is going to be rocked by a continuously fluctuating throughput rate. Those with a background in chemical-metallurgy will appreciate that a plant runs best when it is operating at a steady state; recovery falls dramatically once the throughput rate gets manipulated on an on-going basis.
Uncertain income and fluctuating recoveries. Two things that aren't ideal no matter how rosey the tint is in your glasses are. Throw a recent multi-year low for REE prices into the mix and its looking like the tough times are only going to get tougher for LYC.
LYC Price at posting:
52.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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