re; qbe pricing, page-100

QBE Event calendar:

02 Jul 2013 Global Operational Transformation Program - Market Update

I think this will be pretty much marketing piece on their move to Philippines and how the cost cutting is going. But if enough potential shareholders like what they hear, we might see spike on that day (and vice versa if they don't).

20 Aug 2013 Profit and dividend announcement for the six months ending 30 June 2013

Now this will be the real meat - if QBE failed to increase their EPS to at least $1 - $1.05 per share as forecasted (from $0.7-ish); then it will get ugly.

I don't think that will be hard though; because they have so many accounting "toys" to play with - just don't amortize/re-value any impaired goodwill; reduce the actuarial provision %; and they are set to hit the target.

If the exchange rate hold for the end of the year, it would give them a nice bump as well.

but what really matters imo is

1. How their US subsidiaries perform in 2013; and the likely impact of all the legal disputes they have going forward; and whether they have 'fixed' their agricultural insurance under writing

2. How big do they think they can grow in market that quickly growing for them at the moment like latin America and asia.

3. Insurance payout rate - which I think will be benign for this reporting period.

All around I think they'd do well; but the problem is the market also think so; so the upside is not that big anymore (the price has increased by 50% this year!)