sorry for the long term holders, page-49

Intrestingly I think to take note when looking at the nickel price is the Chinese SRB has just bought 60 thou tonnes on market. Makes you think nickel is at or near it's lows.
The biggest problem that has been facing nickel is the npi producers which now are producing at a loss or are shutting down for maitenece.
Npi is produce for approx $7 to 8.50 a lb.
These producer have capped the price and produced enough to limit the price of nickel.
Trouble is the have forced nickel down to where it is cheaper using nickel than producing the lower quality npi product.
Hence I think the reason why the SRB has bought nickel for the first time since 2009. Nickel sheets are now cheaper than the inferior npi product.
hence nickel at its lows. How long can npi producers stay on care and maitenece is anyone's guess. But this sort of price contraction will be good for low cost producers like POS. Whose costs are royaltiies should be around the $4 plus mark.
Especially with the drop in aud, there are over 20 mines closing or have closed in the past few months and many especially laterite miners that are now close to or underwater on full cost production.
Also another factor on nickel price driver is the shorting of base metals especially nickel many pundits seem to think in August when stainless steel producers come back on line after maitenece there will be a short covering rally.
Also another factor to remember only half of nickel is used for stainless steel. Other uses batteries military and coins..
I find the nickel price interesting and have closed all my short positions and am looking to go long and expect the price to bounce to 17,000 by sept.
Then fluctuate between there and 15800.
The only reason for this is npi production is just profitable at these levels and after destocking china will restock in August.


These are my thoughts only but I think I might be spot on.
So why post this on pos, I think so close to funding pos is nickel price sensitive and will drop till around the end of July when nickel price will pick up. Good luck guys.