Denmor - don't forget ex lover Emerson. He will NEVER serve under Rudd.
So far I reckon the majority of the cabinet will stick with Gillard come hell or high water:
Swan, Emerson, Garrett, Conroy, Plibersek, Lundy, Gray, O'Connor and Wong. Dreyfus and Clare are her appointees. That's 11 of the 19 cabinet ministers.
Macklin will probably support her and also Combet, Burke and , Ludwig. I am not sure about Butler. David Bradbury is not in cabinet but has said he supports her.
Albanese, Carr and Shorten will have a bit each way imo.