I think you're on the right track, am doubtful Libs would change horses this late in the race, but they would certainly dump Abbott in a heartbeat should he lose to Rudd (in fact he would probably resign anyway).
Then Turnbull or Hockey would lead, both moderates.
Australians like moderates, they usually win elections.
I don't think Abbott would be extreme but he does come across as hardline too much of the time.
