us order for relenza, page-2

re: us order for relenza/bta fair value If the US order and other stockpile orders take up all 20 million courses this financial year then the BTA royalty at 6% net should be $40 million or about $20 million after operating costs. With 179 million shares on issue now I believe a fair valuation is $2.80 on the basis that production is being ramped up and this income could well be trebled (after operating costs are extracted) within 2 years supporting a much higher valuation. Initially I would put a PE of 25 on it but would drop this to 15 in 2 years on higher production as there would be less scope for blue sky premium until LANI is ready. Even at PE of 15 a trebled income after costs is still $5 in 2 years so I will continue to hold.