neodynium continues to rise day by day, page-12

Lol, quite right Lei ridiculous, but if you go back and compare other forecasts at the time you'll also find that JPM was pretty much the most conservative, others were circa 240ktpa!
JPM were also about the last to cave in to the pricing euphoria in 2011 and held to a LT basket circa $60kg for Lynas when others were using multiples of that. They finally bent to market and raised it a month or so before prices began the long slide.
Point is, who has got it right? Anybody even close? Do we care, or just invest our hard earned on a wing and a prayer, or Chinese propaganda, or Alesso's glad handling?
Go back to 2009/10, as I have, and read all the precursor material to the great RE bubble and you'll find the brightest & the best (Lifton notable exception) were sucked in by the "Great China RE Conspiracy".
In business, as in life, it is often those that realise their mistakes the earliest and set about corrective action that have the greatest LT success. No one bats 100%.
It's been a slow process for ROW investment market to come to terms with the realities of the RE market, and still unfolding, but for whatever it's worth I firmly believe JPM, and Lynas, are ahead of that pack.
Of course the obvious conclusion in all of this is the clear superiority of TA over FA, particularly given the deliberately opaque nature of info 3/4 years ago in an emerging industry.
Criticize all you like but I'll have a lot more respect if you can put forward a credible alternative at the same time.