big opening, page-16

Tuta, the BP report is bit dated in some respects (the target sizes are too small etc). But here is some of the more relevant stuff - sorry about the formatting. I can email it to you if you wish;
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Block 105
Figure 2 shows the potential upside to NEN if we include all the prospects in Block 105 identified by NSA and with higher Chances of Success (CoS). We have shown the three possible volumes estimates as provided by NSA, and apportioned better risk ratings (higher CoS) for the smaller volume targets and harsher risk ratings for the bigger targets.
Using NSA’s “Best estimate” for Block 105 and a 30% risk rating generates a value of $0.43/share for that block alone. This compares to $0.22/share for our base case risked valuation for NEN. The “High estimate” generates a value of $0.97/share risked and $4.87 unrisked.
Table 2 - NEN alternative valuations for Block 105 Vietnam
Block 105
Low estimate
Best estimate
High estimate
Bcf
Bcf
Bcf
Lead 1 (Song Ca)
144
535
1,613 Lead 2
15
49
133
Lead 3
12
42
119
Lead 4 (Cua Lo)
1,061
3,892
13,969
Lead 5
217
786
2,539
Lead 6
91
284
802
Lead 7
176
679
2,243
Total
1,716
6,267
21,418
NEN net 25%
686
2,507
8,567
Medium risk
Medium-High risk
High risk
CoS
40%
30%
20% NPV/mcf
$0.50
$0.50
$0.50
$m
137
376
857
$/share
$0.16
$0.43
$0.97
$/share on 100% success
$0.39
$1.42
$4.87
SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES
Using NSA’s “Best estimate” for Block 105 and a 30% risk rating generates a value of $0.43/share for that block alone
Page 4
Neon Energy (NEN) 1 May 2013
Block 120
Similarly, if we use NSA’s “Best estimate” for Block 120 and a 20% risk rating, this would be worth $1.22/share compared to our $0.24/share valuation for two prospects. NSA’s “High estimates” would generate $1.81/share risked and $18.11 unrisked.
These calculations use $5/bbl for oil and $0.50/mcf of gas for NPVs. Actual project NPVs would be higher, but we think these values are appropriate for undiscovered resources in a Vietnamese fiscal regime.
The Tables using NSA estimates show what the value would be if all the identified prospects were to be successful. We would stress that this is a very unrealistic calculation as no exploration program is ever 100% successful. As usual, the truth will be somewhere in-between.
Table 3 - NEN alternative valuations for Block 120 Vietnam
Block 120
Low estimate
Best estimate
High estimate
mmbbl
mmbbl
mmbbl
Lead 1
83
362
1,075 Lead 2
21
101
310
Lead 3
53
216
628
Lead 4
27
111
323
Lead 5 (Ca Lang)
126
461
1,311
Lead 6
8
38
117
Lead 7
6
29
89
Lead 8
11
52
160
Lead 9
10
48
148
Lead 10 (Rua Bien)
160
611
1,742
Lead 11
11
55
170
Lead 12
118
591
1,891
Total
633
2,674
7,965
NEN net 25%
158
668
1,991
Medium risk
High risk
Very high risk
CoS
30%
20%
10% NPV/bbl
$5.00
$5.00
$5.00
$m
237
668
996
$/share
$0.43
$1.22
$1.81
$/share on 100% success
$1.44
$6.08