SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

advisory 17/7, page-14

  1. 239 Posts.
    Hi sharks,

    you write: "I'm getting concerned about all this. It doesnt look good."

    I can understand and follow your logic in detail...

    but...we are at the point where you can interpret the whole situation just the other way around...
    ...maybe they UNDERSTOOD, that they have to play it safe going forward...as I understand, drilling the Sail and Anchor has been difficult for them...so...another reason to play it safe and drill Billabong first and afterwards frac both wells together...
    I´m no expert, but maybe it is better for Sail and Anchor to go forward like this...(in fact they point it out in their latest report when they write: "In addition to the cost savings, this plan will also allow the fracture systems in both wells to be introduced to a similar pressure regime. This means it is more likely that a more uniform fracture network and stimulated reservoir volume is established between the two well bores rather than a pressure regime influenced by production from the Sail and Anchor well. As a result of this increased stimulated reservoir volume, the ultimate volume of oil recovered should increase from both wells compared to the situation where each well is stimulated independently with a time gap between the two fracture treatments." ).

    A few days back, I was arguing my concerns, that SSN was going forward rather speedy and wrote that I was anxious that they could "miss the curve" or "run against the wall" if they continued like this IMHO...

    Now I´m rather confident, with their change of approach... as they are slowing down...

    This might be a major change in strategy...which I was waiting for...

    I see it just the opposite...if they had go on like the years before they would have found themselves at a dead end sooner rather then later...

    I´m confident... i better wait till mid november then going bancrupt...I´m confident that they UNDERSTOOD that the market would not forgive another error.

    BTW I´m still confident with Matson well, too. But this is just my personal gut feeling...

    All above is my humble opinion only.

    Cheers,

    c

 
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