b120: chance of success, page-4

Funny you mention that scoob, as I was just looking into that for other purposes. I'd be interested in your/other opinions too.

Firstly, there is no doubt in my mind that the JV will not drill near well 120-CS-1X, which was the BHP location. There are a couple of reasons for this, but it also highlights some risks for me.

The BHP well looks to have stopped at the Miocene Reef. What I dont fully understand is why they stopped here and why they failed to identify the breach slightly south east of the target. The 2D available to them actually articulates the formation and depth. It difficult to believe that a supermajor is capable of such a mistake - in saying that they do stuff up. Certainly NEN/JV believe that this 'incised channel' may have breached the trap, but it doesnt explain the depth. It just goes to show you that there are risks.

Secondly, my opinion is that they will select Ca Ngu which is technically not 'near' the BHP well but at the same time is the closest primary target to that well. This target will give the JV access to the mio-pliocene fan sands, miocene reef and oligocene synrift clastics which KC talked about. A drill at Ca Lang can also do this but the upper amplitudes are not as strong as Ca Ngu. Rua Bien, the largest target (@611MMbbls for best est/1724 high est) is further away from the BHP well so its unlikely to measure oil through the miocene reef (as identified in the BHP drill) AND it will have to go deeper to get tto he Oligocene layer. This will add cost. Gas Volumes for Ca Ngu are expected shortly and this will have an impact on its - potential - selection as a gas/oil play.

You'd have to 'think' that the closer you are to an already identified hyrdocarbon system the greater the probability of finding a resource. Per previous post, faults over time provide for migration pathways.