latest chart, page-34

Chris, I guess you have to look at the context of my post, which is an argument about a company stated goal being a ramp, my point was that the risk and reward and ramping is mostly still ahead of us. Think of the post less as minimising Ungani and more "un-minimising" everything else.

Of course Ungani is incredibly important. For one thing it derisks the whole trend to a certain factor. And yes it pays for exploration and proves that BRU isn't all hype. It is a keystone that supports the SP and future development. We have trucked and sold oil. I did say it meant we'd reached the grand final!

It's not a matter of if, we will have unsuccessful drills in the trend. Hell Yakka Munga could (and realistically probably will) be a failure just on probability. Buru are risking the 3 billion barrels at 10% success for 300mmbbl. Mathematically Ungani is what supports this and lets us look ahead and hope we'll end up with at least a couple of hundred mmbbl. There is a reason they spent tens of millions buying into REY's permits. It's now ridiculously prospective thanks to Ungani. It's also why I've repeatedly said I want them to go back to Ungani North before they do anything else, give us a confirmed 6mmbbl success now it's been significantly derisked. Then probably adjacent Ungani prospects before a big one like Yakka Munga. One or two continuous small successes will help cushion any blow of a bigger one failing.

The point was I don't really care whether they hit a target by a certain date, it'll get there 3, 6 months later and won't really have a significant impact (we're not talking no income, just less income by a certain date. I've currently been waiting about 7 years, I can wait another 3-6 months for a "piddly" 1000bbl to meet a late projection while we're currently funded to drill the next prospects regardless). It's also why I'm happy enough if Ungani is the 10mmbbl the wells seem in contact with. Of course more is better, but I won't be disappointed if it's not 30mmbbl or something. We've been so lucky on that drill I almost feel greedy asking for more. It's not often you hit large cavernous pools of oil when you're looking for gas.

BRU is likely to try to use a debt facility to get the GNP up so there probably won't be a lot of dilution there. Most of the capex would come from commercializing the Laurel wet gas and they'll likely bring on a third partner for that. I mean, in ten years we will need a JPP so we'll need a roadmap to something like that. The GNP will only suffice for so long.