latest chart, page-35

Here is another way of saying it.
(measures volume only not profitability)

This is Ungani at 10mmbbl: *

This is the potential of the Ungani Trend (@ Buru's stated 10% success rate): ******************************

The other unrelated conventional targets like Acacia (This is very rough, subtracting Ungani Trend from old conventional estimates even though they thought Ungani would be gas, also subtracting some combined NSE targets): **************************************************************************************************

This is the liquids potential of the Laurel (at current condensate ratio):******************************************************************************************************************************************************

This is very roughly the gas potential of the Laurel: **********************************************************************************************************************************************************************

This is the liquids potential of their Goldwyer according to Buru: ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************


People are not used to having so much headroom for a junior to explore. Mostly a junior has a couple of prospects they are targeting so yes, production figures are crucially important. Like EMR or EGO when Valentine was being drilled... When there are few follow up drills into new prospects it's basically all about production and buying growth by acquiring new prospects. Buru is different though. We have most of a basin, not most of a permit and that takes getting your head around. It's why everyone is aware of the "silly figures" but no one really mentions them seriously.

Do I think they will discover all those asterisk, all that potential? Almost definitely not, for a starters most of the Laurel and Goldwyer estimates are upper range potential. It's unlikely to be that high. Also the Goldwyer might be totally bust and unable to produce.. maybe the Laurel isn't commercial.. maybe only 7% of the Ungani Trend is successful. Maybe the Ungani asterisk is worth 10 Goldwyer asterisk in profitability. The point is that whilst I'm ecstatic to have Ungani underpinning things, keeping things in perspective is important. To call production on a fraction of a pixel of that single asterisk a ramp, when we've already trucked and sold oil is missing the forest for the trees and that was my point.
The silly high risk potential is the 746 other asterisk, of which a couple of dozen would be nice to eventually get.. A production target might be optimistic, it might be challenging, companies do routinely fail to deliver, and I'd wager we probably won't meet it, but it's not a high risk ramp.