rare earth sentiment tone for friday, page-16

OMG, where have I ever said Ce & La prices won't rise?

I doubt Ce will move much but La is highly likely to begin a steady appreciation on FCC & battery demand and disengage from Ce pricing.

Actually La prices appreciating against Ce will be one of the confirming signs of true demand driving the industry.

Just think that since probably 2009 or so the industry has not operated under true supply/demand forces, it's been manipulated by China, resulting in the massive dislocation over the past two years. Check the history of FOB v domestic Sm pricing thru the period, a concept I introduced to Gareth Hatch and with which he agreed. There's some background at GM he explained that I won't go into here.

The intro of supply from Moly/Lynas plus transparent Chinese pricing thru Baotou TP will introduce a true supply/demand dynamic across the individual elements, provided they can control the illegal supply.

Takes us full circle, the jury is still out on the effectiveness of China's actions, and therefore the immediate future of RE prices.