bernankes truth, as terrible as it is., page-23

  1. 5,925 Posts.
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    When I was introduced to stats there was a joke going around which was this: there are two persons and two chickens were eaten by one of them. Statistically speaking each one of the two persons ate one chicken.

    This illustrate the fact that when dealing with stats one should be alerted for the fact that they represent not the best inference method. Nevertheless due to economic reasons or to physical impossibilities or constraints the fact is that we are condemned to have to make use of them. However this is different from saying that the raw data upon which the statistical method of inference rely is fake.

    You state that: From 2000 onwards SNAP trailled, but though U6 fell frpm '03 t0 '07, SNAP merely plateaued at best, and maybe levelling again before next rise.

    If Obama's 2009 “stimulus” bill increased benefits and eligibility, link bellow, then one would expect the SNAP to plateau when U6 starts falling.

    http://www.policymic.com/articles/14284/food-stamps-both-obama-and-republicans-are-to-blame-for-record-crisis

    In your post you also state: 1) that any attempt to stop stimulus now will lead the US staight back into recession IMO. And they must do something, sometime to withdraw stimulus. What happens then? And 2) that war in Iraq and Afghanistan are nearing an end. How many retired soldiers will be added to U6.

    Well when the WW2 finished lots of economists feared that the sudden withdrawal of the war stimulus, demobilization of the troops and the conversion of the war economy into peace time (Rosa the riveter returning home), would cause a depression, but that did not happen. I know, I know that although the debt level then was even higher than what it is now in terms of its ratio to GDP, things now are different.

    Finally you assert that with a long period of stagnation, fewer jobs and low pay, it's hard to see how the US will reclaim it's former status and prosperity.

    I recently had a talk with a young American army officer, somebody expected to fight for his country if the need arises and he asked me this: why should a 16 year old school dropout be entitled to expect to have a car and a house when his counterparts in China can do the same thing that he does for much less?

    Well, if America wants to reclaim its past past sense of economic justice then they must start by changing the ideology underpinning this type of comment. No doubt that the US is facing huge challenges. However imo they seem not to be insurmountable.





 
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