here are my own numbers.
Given the grade and gold EQ sums, i see somewhere around $200 per ton profit for a DSO product. This figure is based on the mineral eq conversion and rounded off. I reckon the mining costs up there to be very very low. Labor costs, close to port etc, means this could produce an open cut DSO at port for sub $50 at a guess.
now just do some numbers based on there 63% of the project and expected tonnes shipped pa.
lets just say they move 250,000tpa x $200 x 63% (srm's cut) = $31.5m profit.
500,000tpa = $63m profit
and 1m tpa = $126m pa
This is why we dont need a lot of tonnes to get a 10-20 year mine life. This is based on Mabilo only. This is also based on pay dirt down to 200m, as the rest is still owned by SRM. I dont know how many tonnes they could move up there, but these numbers are fine for a sealed road close to port imo.
These are the reasons why i like this project, its simply to formulate some sort of values and costs. The project should not require a processing plant, and major overheads.
Now you just have to work out your PE's. Given the market is hard work, i am saying a PE of 3 with mine life and a proven concept. I am trying to be conservative.
On those numbers. the valuations for Mabilo alone, work out something like this. i have allowed for the stock to be fully diluted out to 300m shares and enough cash to bring this on.
base case on only shipping 250k pa = $94.5m valuation or approx 31c per share.
500k pa = 62c per share
1m tpa = $1.24 per share.
You can make up your own PE and tonnages, but you can see why the current share price is a well hidden joke on my numbers.
Then work out what Bunawan could be worth on top.
All this aside, i reckon the stock should trade higher as things develop. i tend to buy things and hold them. I also tend to add to the position as news flow proves the concept. I have added to my own holdings several times over the last few months with this pull back etc.
BUNAWAN is another top up point.
Please dyor.
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