share price outlook now

My interpretation = Test will be good and commercial

1/. Oil v Gas
This Horizontal Well is in the top of the Reservoir where there is always more Gas than Oil

Also initial hydrocarbon shows will always have more Gas the Oil, so we should see Oil settle down at c.25%

Later wells (and deeper) will have a much higher % of Oil but in the short term that is no good for us.


2/. Valuation
I had targeted 100m barrel of oil ($0.60 a share) from Tunisia at $10 / barrel x 15%.

Now it looks like 50m barrels ignoring all the Gas (so $0.30 a share).

The $0.30 rise in value will happen in 2 stages, 50% ($0.15 a share) on completion of the Tests and 50% over next 12 months .. or if Dragon Buys Tunisia.


3/. Share Price
The SP should keep rising to $0.14 (+27%) over the next 10 days.

There will be some profit taking from the recent placing, especially at $0.14 (options here thus resistance level).

On Test results, the price to move from $0.14 to $0.20 (+40%).
At $0.20 we have more Carmichael selling the share they underwrote and after that we will see $0.23.

I still expect Dragon to buy Tunisia (another $0.15 share to $0.38), might take 4 months (Gas will prolong negotiations, hence I have ignored its value).


We are still looking very good and I still have my traget of +$2.00 by year end 2014.