You forgot over 2 billion in debt, thus interest expense as well as large debt repayments over a 10 year life. Need confirmation of refinance.
Cash cost excludes royalties of 5 percent for magnetite (although they have a grace period of 2.5 percent but runs out early next year). Also forgot shipping which may be as high as 15 a tonne. Wier told me that was roughly in line once upon a time. Admin/exploration also, but they are fairly immaterial.
130 a tonne over the next 12 months would be very generous. Also I doubt it's a 20 percent premium, the ore is discounted slightly. But the overall product will be a premium to spot. No one knows what it is, GBG hasn't released full details of the new pricing agreement.
FMG is trading below a 10 PE going forward. So GBG will not either. Follow the market leaders.. MGX is shipping at 9mtpa with 100 percent entitlement,, no debt, proven business model and 376m cash. It's market cap is 650m. Less cash it's 274m.. Yeah it has short mine lives, but it tells you the market sentiment is that iron ore miners are not getting high PE values.
My model using 130 a tonne and 0.915 usd is 7.7 cents a share for its entitlement. Falls quickly to 2.5 cents at same exchange rate but 110 a tonne. I've said 80 for cash cost of karara, also includes 2mtpa DSO. I'm wary of the proposed 75ish cash cost, I think it'll blow out. AGO suffering the same thing right now. Need to see that nameplate production P&L for a real picture of Karara. It could significantly rerate GBG up or down.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?